Thursday, October 21, 2010

National Farm Machinery Predictions

Every year hundreds of competitors send their applications to the National Farm Machinery Show committee for review.  I have always loved the excitement that swarm's around the message boards in November as pullers start to receive their letters of acceptance.  Every year making the field becomes increasingly harder as competitors from around the world are now trying their hand at the "Big Show" of pulling.  In 2009, I sat down to devise a rubric of how I thought the fields would be set and who would make it in based on their seasons achievements. 

The first limiting factor is I truly have no idea who submitted an application and who did not. Secondly, I have no idea how the NFMS Committee evaluates the competitor pool and what they put the most emphasis on when reviewing applications.  Third how will they navigate multiple truck teams.  (Note- If the committee caps multiple truck teams my rubric will be incorrect)

The rubric I followed got me relatively close last year in my estimates of who would be accepted.  Certainly, I did not get everyone correct but I was pleased with the results.  Over the next few weeks I am going to release my guesses as to who I think  matches my rubric the closest.  In some cases the same truck meets numerous criteria, in that case I took the first instance and moved forward.  (ie- Petro wins NFMS 2010, Petro finishes 3rd 2010 Points)  Another major discussion revolves around multi truck teams and whether or not they should get all of their trucks in.  My philosophy in the beginning was if the trucks have seperate drivers, they are not to be considered a team.  In 2009 the Petro's dominated the NTPA circuit and rightfully earned their three trucks being in the 2010 show, it was with that I changed my mind entirely and decided to follow the rubric regardless. 

My rubric-

1) Start with the Saturday Night Qualifiers
2) NTPA and Pro Pulling League Top 5 Competitors
3) Points winners from the : Outlaws, Badger State, Ohio State, BOB, ITPA
4) NTPA and Pro Pulling League Top 10 Finishers
5) Region Winners for NTPA/Pro Pulling League
6) Previous Years finish at NFMS
7)Champions Provisional
8)Points Champions from other state and regional pulling associations
9)High Points Finishers from the Outlaws, Badger State, Ohio State, ITPA, BOB

Super Modified Two Wheel Drive Trucks

Criteria 1
1)Jessie Petro 2 Timin
2)Randy Petro Kathy's Complaint
3)Dan Walsh Irish Challenger
4)Ricky Long Willy Makit
5)Jordan Nelson Midnight Madness
6)Ryan Writsel Lucky Stryke
7)Keith Long MAV TV
8)Will Teasley Bad Boy

Criteria 2
9)Chuck Knapp Back Forty NTPA 2nd
10)Randy/Jessie Petro Buckeye Hauler NTPA 4th
11)Renee Theobald Pretty Wicked NTPA 5th
12)Ricky Long Ridin Dirty PPL 3rd
13)Wayne/Donnie Sullivan Big Ed Red PPL 4th
14)Jeremy Nelson Midnight Gambler PPL 5th

Criteria 3
15)Robert Zajicek Gun Smoke (Outaws Champ)
16)Carey Motorsports Destination Unknown/All Fired Up (BoB Points Champs Tied-1 truck in)
17)John Mumma After Midnight (ITPA Champ)

Criteria 4
18)William/Heather Beeler Fearless NTPA 6th
19)Geoffrey Bartley Lumberjack NTPA 7th
20)William/Heather Beeler Unforgiven NTPA 8th
21)Kyloe Knapp Eighty Acres NTPA 9th
22)Stan Shelton Cutting Edge PPL 6th
23)Chris Smith PPL 10th

Criteria 5
24)Jeff Writsel At it Again NTPA Region 2
25)Dustin Amundson Jack Pot NTPA Region 3
26)John Gott Sled Slayer NTPA Region 4
27)Corey Kielmeyer Beer Wagon NTPA Region 5
28) Keith Slayden American Made NTPA Region 6
29)Jared Nelson Rockstar Chevy PPL Midwest Region

Criteria 6
Doug Theobald and Lisa Tatum both were a top 10 finisher.  I gave the final spot to Tatum based on Criteria 7.

Criteria 7
30)Lisa Tatum Full Throttle Champions Provisional

Always in consideration:

Been in Numerous times
Doug Theobald Wicked Willy
Adrian Hunter The Hunter
Chase Richardson Gutted
Danny Sullivan Hansel Sullivan Memorial Pull

Solid Points Finishes elsewhere
Allen Brown Sweet Thang
Randy Wendling Broke and Busted
Bill Oberste Missouri Gambler
Oz Hay Nitroholic
Carey Motorsports 2nd Truck
Tony Tatum Parts City Auto Parts

Final Remarks
Multi Truck Teams have claimed a huge amount of spots in my rubric, this may be the flaw in how I devised my list. 
The current list has 3 Petro's, 2 Sullivans, 2 Knapps, 2 Writsels, 2 Beelers, 3 Longs, 4 Midnight Trucks (18 Trucks)
Petros- 1,3,4 NTPA
Sullivans-OSTPA Champ/Top 5 PPL and Stimulus Package Top 10 PPL Champions Tour Event Winner
Knapps-2,9 NTPA
Writsels-Top 8 Returner, NTPA Region II Champ
Beelers-6,8 NTPA
Longs- 1,2,3, PPL Champions Tour
Midnight-Jordan Nelson Top 8 Returner, Jeremy Nelson Top 5 PPL, John Mumma 1st ITPA/7th PPL, Jared Nelson Midwest Region Champion

I hope you all enjoy this!  The next class I guess at will be the Super Farm Tractors!

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